Donald Trump took the oath of office last week for a second term promising to disrupt the status quo. In 2017 Trump had won narrowly and he inherited a GOP majority in Congress that had a long-developed agenda on taxes, healthcare, judges and much else. The main policy victories of his first term–tax reform, energy development and judges–were traditional GOP priorities.

This time Trump arrives in the Oval Office after a clear victory that was largely his own. The GOP majority in Congress is loyal to him, and a remarkable two-thirds of Republicans in the House were elected since 2016. Congress doesn’t have much of an agenda.

The President-elect starts his second term with a personal favorable rating that is close to 50% and new political capital. Susie Wiles, his chief of staff, seems to have imposed order on the transition and the new White House staff. Trump’s first six months in 2017, by contrast, were a daily riot.

All of this means Trump has political running room, though it’s not unlimited. His victory was solid but no landslide. Half the country still dislikes him.

Take immigration and border security. Trump has a mandate to stop the flood of illegal migrants, and that will be an immediate priority. He will have support for deporting criminals and gangs like Tren de Aragua.

But he also promised mass deportation. If this means midnight raids on busboys, or separating mothers from children, the politics could turn fast. His best option is controlling the border and using his political capital on the subject to cut a deal with Congress.

Or take the tax bill that must pass to avoid a $4 trillion tax increase in 2026. Merely extending the 2017 tax provisions will be a heavy lift. But Trump campaigned on trillions of dollars more in tax breaks–no tax on tips, Social Security benefits or overtime.

The danger is that the tax bill becomes a vehicle for income redistribution rather than economic growth. Inflation more than anything else elected Trump, and he will fail as President if his policies don’t lift real wages for his new working-class coalition.

Which brings us to tariffs. A tariff is a tax and a tax is anti-growth. The impact of his tariffs, and of the retaliation from other countries, is a growth wild card.

Trump views tariffs as an all-purpose political tool, which raises the question of how much he wants to disrupt the current U.S. network of alliances. He may not leave NATO, but he will want Europe to provide for most of its own defense. Same with allies in Asia.

What we don’t know is whether Trump believes in a world in which there are dominant spheres of influence: the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere, China in the Asia-Pacific, and Russia in Europe. This is the logic of the GOP’s isolationist wing, and it is a recipe for a chaotic reordering of world affairs.

Most important will be Trump’s courtship of Chinese dictator Xi Jinping. Former Trump security adviser John Bolton writes in his memoir that Trump said in his first term that a U.S. defense of Taiwan was implausible, and Xi can read. China could react to Trump’s tariffs with a blockade of Taiwan,. How would Trump respond? Would he cede Taiwan?

Americans don’t want disruption for its own sake. They will support it if it means broader prosperity that they can share.

If Trump focuses on settling scores rather than raising incomes, Democrats will sweep the 2026 midterms and progressives will return to power. A second presidential chance would be a terrible thing to waste.