Five Key Questions for Trump’s Senate Impeachment Trial

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Arguments begin Tuesday in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump. A look at five key questions about what to expect when senators hear the case against the former president:

WILL TRUMP BE

CONVICTED?

It's unlikely. While many Republicans were harshly critical of Trump for telling supporters to "fight like hell" and go to the Capitol, their criticism has since softened.

The shift was evident during a Jan. 26 test vote. Only five Republican senators voted against a motion that was aimed at dismissing the trial.

It will take a two-thirds vote of the 100-member Senate to convict Trump of the impeachment charge. Most Republicans have avoided defending Trump's actions the day of the riot. Instead, lawmakers have argued that the trial is unconstitutional because Trump is no longer in office. Democrats and many legal scholars disagree.

After the January test vote, many Republicans indicated Trump's acquittal was a foregone conclusion.

Still, some Republicans said they were waiting to hear the arguments at trial.

HOW DO LAWYERS MOUNT A DEFENSE?

It's a tough needle to thread. Trump's team probably will try to remove the emotion from the case.

In their first filing for the trial, his lawyers made clear that they will challenge the constitutionality of the trial now that Trump has left the White House. That could give an out to Republican senators.

The defense could also argue the trial is pointless with Trump no longer president, because removal from office is the automatic punishment for an impeachment conviction.

To the extent that defense lawyers are forced to grapple head-on with the violence and chaos of Jan. 6, they probably will concede the horror of that day but blame it on the rioters who stormed the Capitol.

HOW DO HOUSE

MANAGERS GET THROUGH TO SKEPTICAL REPUBLICANS?

It won't be easy. For the prosecutors, the bottom line is that the riot wouldn't have happened without Trump.

It's a simple case that Democrats feel doesn't need to be exaggerated, especially because five people died amid the chaos, and senators were victims themselves. In a brief filed this past week previewing their arguments, the House impeachment managers used stark imagery and emotional appeals to argue Trump's guilt.

Their filing said senators were "feet away" from the swarming rioters, and noted that those outside "wearing Trump paraphernalia shoved and punched Capitol Police officers, gouged their eyes, assaulted them with pepper spray and projectiles."

In the House, the impeachment managers wrote, "terrified members were trapped in the Chamber; they prayed and tried to build makeshift defenses while rioters smashed the entryway … some Members called loved ones for fear that they would not survive the assault by President Trump's insurrectionist mob."

WILL TRUMP TESTIFY?

That doesn't seem likely. He's rejected through his lawyers a request by impeachment managers to testify. A subpoena seeking to compel his testimony isn't expected.

With Trump at his Florida resort, his lawyers will be left to make arguments on his behalf.

WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUMP'S ACQUITTED?

The likelihood of Trump's acquittal worries some senators, who fear the consequences for the country. Some have floated the possibility of censuring Trump after the trial.

But there also may be another way for Congress to bar Trump from holding future office.

Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman and Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca suggested Congress could turn to a provision of the 14th Amendment that is aimed at preventing people from holding federal office if they are deemed to have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against" the Constitution.

The professors wrote that if a majority vote of both houses agree that Trump engaged in an act of "insurrection or rebellion," then he would be barred from running for the White House again.