CHARLESTON — New polling released Thursday shows that even if he switches parties from Democratic to independent, re-election to the U.S. Senate could be tough for Joe Manchin.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., released a poll Thursday looking at the potential for Manchin, D-W.Va., switching parties and mounting a re-election campaign for a third six-year term for the Senate in 2024.

The poll, conducted by The Terrance Group between Sept. 24 and Sept. 26, was based on telephone interviews with 500 likely voters and the poll has a margin of error of 4.5%.

According to the poll memorandum, 57% of respondents are aware of news reports that Manchin is considering switching voter registration from the Democratic Party to independent. But among those aware of Manchin considering a party switch, 49% of those said they oppose the idea of Manchin switching political parties.

If Manchin switches to independent and still caucuses with the Senate Democratic Caucus, 52% of respondents said such a move would give them an unfavorable impression of Manchin, while 36% said they would have a favorable impression.

In a potential head-to-head 2024 general race against Republican Gov. Jim Justice, an independent Manchin would lose with 49% supporting Justice and 43% supporting Manchin and 8% undecided. Among independents, 50% said they would support Justice and 39% said they would support Manchin with 11% undecided.

“A potential party switch to independent would do nothing to improve Sen. Manchin’s standing with West Virginia voters in terms of either image or ballot strength,” the memorandum stated. “A potential party switch would also contribute nothing to Manchin’s ballot strength.”

Manchin, a former state lawmaker, secretary of state and governor, was first elected to the Senate in 2010 in a special election to serve the remainder of the term of Robert C. Byrd, who died in office. Manchin was elected to a full six-year term in 2012 and re-elected in 2018 in a close race with Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Manchin has yet to announce his intentions for re-election, choosing to wait until the end of the year to announce his plans. Manchin has been floated as a possible candidate for president on a unity ticket affiliated with No Labels, an independent group focused on bipartisanship.

“Nobody values working across the aisle more than Joe Manchin and by doing so he’s been able to deliver more than $6 billion dollars worth of investments that will create thousands of good-paying energy jobs in West Virginia as a result of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and Inflation Reduction Act,” said a Manchin spokesperson. “West Virginian’s know Joe Manchin is the person best fit to continue to build upon these accomplishments in the Senate.”

Justice announced his campaign for Senate in April after being recruited to run by the Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Justice also is supported by U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va.

Justice faces two other Republican candidates: frequent candidate Zane Lawhorn and U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va. Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Rand Paul, R-Ky., have endorsed Mooney, as has the conservative Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund created by former South Carolina U.S. senator and former Heritage Foundation president Jim DeMint.