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Poll: Republican Primary for West Virginia Governor Getting Tighter

CHARLESTON — As voters cast their ballots in the final days of early voting and with Tuesday’s primary election around the corner, more Republican and independent voters are honing in on their pick in the race to be the GOP nominee for governor of West Virginia.

According to the latest poll from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, the owner of several TV stations in West Virginia, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey continues to lead among the top four GOP candidates for governor, with 28% of respondents supporting Morrisey, down by five points from 33% in Emerson College/Nexstar’s March poll.

“Patrick Morrisey’s support continues to grow as Election Day gets closer,” said Taylor Van Kirk, a spokesperson for the Morrisey campaign. “West Virginians know he is the only proven conservative in the race with an unmatched record of getting big things done for West Virginia.”

Morrisey, who has served as attorney general since 2012, was campaigning in the Ohio Valley Wednesday, including stops at the Fiesta Tableware Company.

“We are outworking our opposition and will deliver a big victory for our America First, conservative values next Tuesday,” Morrisey said in a social media post Wednesday.

Morrisey has been touting support from former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race in January and endorsed former President Donald Trump.

Ramaswamy campaigned with Morrisey last week in Lewisburg. Morrisey has also received support from Donald Trump Jr.

“Morrisey has been pro-Trump since day one and has always been a warrior for the America First movement,” Trump Jr. said in a social media post Tuesday. “He’s 100% MAGA and will make a great Governor of West Virginia!”

Support for former House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito jumped 11 points, from 14% in March to 25% in last week’s poll. Capito’s new numbers put him within striking distance of Morrisey’s lead when factoring in the poll’s 4.1% margin of error.

“The Emerson Poll is another clear indication that Moore Capito is building on the momentum from Gov. Jim Justice’s endorsement in the closing days of this campaign,” Capito Campaign Manager Todd Gunter in a statement Thursday. “Voters are responding to Moore’s get-it-done conservative record and his plan to grow jobs and take West Virginia to the next level. Moore is in the best position to win the race.”

Justice, himself a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, endorsed Capito last month and has been campaigning with him over the last 30 days. Justice’s numbers in the Emerson College/Nexstar poll remain unchanged from March at 54% support, with U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., up slightly from 17% in March to 24% in the new poll with 16% undecided.

The Capito campaign released a new ad Wednesday with Justice and his English bulldog Babydog promoting Capito as a strong Trump conservative who can best lead the state.

“Many of you asked me who would do the best job as our next governor. I say Moore Capito,” Justice said. “He’s the only Republican I endorsed. Simply put: You trusted me. We pulled the rope together. We’ve got to make the right decision because you’re worth it. Babydog and I stand with Moore Capito.”

Coming in third in the Emerson College/Nexstar poll was Huntington businessman Chris Miller who jumped three points, from 16% in March to 19%. Secretary of State Mac Warner jumped six points, from 6% in March to 12%. And the number of undecided voters decreased by 13 points, from 29% in March to 16%.

According to the poll, when undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward and those numbers included in the overall results, Morrisey jumps to 33% support, followed by Capito with 29%, Miller with 21% and Warner with 15%.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Morrisey’s strength is registered Republican voters, while Capito’s strength is independents and unaffiliated voters. Kimball also said Morrisey leads with voters with only high school educations, while Capito leads with voters with college-level education.

“Morrisey leads Capito among registered Republican voters, 29% to 23%, whereas independent or unaffiliated voters break for Capito over Morrisey, 35% to 23%,” Kimball said. “Morrisey outperforms Capito with voters whose highest degree of education is high school or less, 31% to 17%, and college, 29% to 23%. Capito leads among GOP voters with a postgraduate degree, 43% to 18%.”

Morrisey, Capito and Miller have all either attacked each other or been attacked for alleged support of the transgender community. When asked about how concerned they were with transgender issues, only 54% said they were very concerned, with 20% saying they were not concerned at all, 17% saying they were somewhat concerned, and 9% saying they were not too concerned.

Morrisey has been accused of past lobbying work on behalf of pharmaceutical companies that manufacture and distribute medication for gender-affirming care. Miller has been attacked for not standing up against LGBTQ advocacy at Marshall University during his time on its Board of Governors. And Capito has been attacked for past support for adding sexual orientation and gender identity to the state’s Human Rights Act that protects against employment and housing discrimination.

According to the poll, respondents were far more concerned about inflation and illegal immigration. When asked about cost-of-living increases due to inflation, 82% said they were very concerned, 14% said they were somewhat concerned and 4% say they were not too concerned. When asked about border security, 80% of respondents said they were very concerned, 11% said they were somewhat concerned, 6% said they were not too concerned, and 3% said they were not concerned at all.

The Emerson College/Nexstar poll included 558 GOP primary voters, with data collected from cell phones through MMS-to-web, and from landline calls using interactive voice response.

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