COVID-19 projections cause capacity concern as regional hospitals brace for impact
UNIONTOWN, Pa. — You can't spell "pandemic" without "panic," but the four-letter words that state Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine has been using repeatedly since the outbreak of COVID-19 haven't been frantic or fearful.
"Stay calm, stay home, stay safe," Levine has advised serenely in multiple daily press conferences.
But hope is a four-letter word that could be hard to find in Fayette and surrounding counties if they don't keep following that advice, according to recent estimates from Columbia University researchers presented by The New York Times.
According to Drs. Sen Pei and Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University, there would be 120,000 people infected with COVID-19 in Fayette County - which had a U.S. Census Bureau population estimate of 130,441 in 2018 - by Aug. 1 without any transmission reduction efforts.
Only severe control measures, including strict adherence to social distancing nationwide and banning large gatherings, would keep the county's number of people infected with the coronavirus to 3,500 by Aug. 1, per their research based on case reports of how the virus is spreading.
Mitigation efforts have escalated across the U.S. since then, but so too have positive cases. Last Sunday, there were 12 confirmed COVID-19 cases across Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties, according to the state Department of Health. As of Friday, there were 57.
A recent survey of infectious disease modeling expert predictions published by Dr. Thomas McAndrew, postdoctoral fellow of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, yielded a consensus that COVID-19 will be responsible for around 195,000 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2020. But even the experts aren't sure just how bad it will get, giving an 80% chance that the coronavirus could cause anywhere between 19,000 and 1.2 million deaths, including a second wave of infections likely to come in the fall.
Having ample medical supplies and equipment to respond to the first wave has become a must. Levine said Friday more than 240 Pennsylvanians have required hospitalization for COVID-19 since March 6, about 11% of all reported cases.
As of Friday, 76 of those that have been hospitalized required ICU treatment and 44 have required ventilators – about 2% of all 2,218 reported cases.
Levine said Friday that approximately 40% of the 3,400 licensed intensive care beds in Pennsylvania were available and noted Wednesday that nearly 75% of the approximately 3,000 ventilators across Pennsylvania were available.
The Pittsburgh hospital referral region would need to expand capacity even in a moderate scenario in which 40% of the adult population contracts COVID-19 over 12 months, according to a ProPublica analysis of data released by the Harvard Global Health Institute. Hospitals in the region would receive an estimated 197,000 coronavirus patients who would require 6,570 beds over 12 months, 2.4 times the available beds in that time period.
Levine said the state has been distributing supplies to hospitals, health systems, professionals, counties and emergency responders statewide, including 678,630 N95 surgical masks, 207,600 procedure masks, 380,000 gloves, 36,870 gowns used as PPE and more than 44,000 goggles and face protection items.
"We are continuing to get more of these supplies from the federal stockpile," she said. "But we're also really scouring the state and the country to purchase whatever is available to make sure that our response teams, and our health care personnel have a sufficient supply of the resources that they need to take care of patients with COVID-19."
Gov. Tom Wolf's office has announced the creation of a web portal that manufacturers, distributors and other suppliers can use to inform state officials of supplies available for purchase and is designed to allow the state to more quickly procure supplies for hospitals and medical facilities throughout the state. Wolf said he would spend up to $50 million in transferred state funding to buy equipment and supplies for hospitals, nursing homes, and emergency workers to help fight COVID-19.
None of the area hospitals contacted for this story indicated dire needs for medical equipment or supplies at this point.
"We have adequate ventilators, medical supplies and trained staff to take care of patients that may (test) positive," said Vicki Meier, director of development at Highlands Hospital in Connellsville.
Uniontown Hospital has the appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) available for its staff to take care of its patients currently, said Josh Krysak, community relations director at the hospital.
"At this time we feel confident in the plans and procedures we have established around a potential surge of cases and we want our friends, neighbors and family to know that we are committed to meeting the capacity needs of the community through this crisis," Uniontown Hospital CEO Steve Handy said.
Krysak said the hospital is working through protocols to free up capacity and conserve PPE by suspending all elective surgical procedures.
Uniontown Hospital has converted its second floor to a COVID-19 "rule out" floor where patients that have been tested for the coronavirus can be safely cared for and remain isolated from other areas of the hospital, according to Krysak.
"Every effort is being made to have proper staffing and support if a surge were to arise," said Andrew Bilinsky, media specialist at Monongahela Valley Hospital.
Excela Health has 51 ICU beds and 110 ventilators within its system consisting of Frick Hospital in Mount Pleasant, Latrobe Hospital and Westmoreland Hospital in Greensburg, and spokesperson Mike Morlacci said the system expects to face an impact on mask supply.
"Presently, we are holding our own," Morlacci said.
Washington Health System President and CEO Brook T. Ward wrote a letter termed a "call to arms" asking those with N95 masks, protective suits or clothing, safety goggles, face shields/visors or latex gloves to contact their local hospital's materials management department.
"While Washington Health System and other local hospitals are currently stocked with some of these necessary supplies, we are working proactively to prepare for the anticipated influx of patients due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Ward wrote.
Slowing the rate of infection, or "flattening the curve," will be crucial for local hospitals. Thousands of lives appear to depend on it.
"The overall goal here is to do everything we can to keep people from (coming) together, to keep people from congregating, to buy time for our health care system," Wolf said.