Rising costs. Falling enrollments. Higher education in West Virginia finds itself at a crossroads — and leaders need to choose a direction, quickly.

Consider:

In the past few months, West Virginia University — the state’s flagship institution — announced it is seeking $75 million in budget cuts as the university projects 5,000 fewer students over the next decade. Marshall University’s Board of Governors recently approved that institution’s 2023-24 budget, which is $4 million less than the prior year. And, as we uncovered and reported Thursday, West Liberty University, which has a new president in Tim Borchers starting July 1, has slashed 14 faculty and staff positions to help deal with an expected $2.7 million budget shortfall in the coming year.

These examples from our state are just the tip of the iceberg of higher education’s enrollment and budgeting challenge. The number of students choosing college nationwide is declining, with a 9.4% decrease from 2020 to 2022, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Some of that decline has to deal with students choosing a different path due to the pandemic, along with the rising cost of higher education. But there’s an even bigger concern on the horizon.

Higher education institutions now find themselves standing on the edge of what’s being termed the “enrollment cliff” — fewer prospective students starting in 2026 due to lower birth rates that resulted from 2008’s Great Recession.

From the Harvard Business Review: “Tracing forward 18 years from the 2008 recession, we can anticipate a sizable decline in prospective college students beginning in 2026. So, after a long period in which prospective student numbers have grown year over year in the U.S., we now anticipate a time of contraction.”

Those issues — both the current student decline and what’s yet to come — pose a serious challenge for many institutions that quickly had to ramp up staffing, housing options and expanded programs as more students enrolled over the past few decades. Now, universities are being forced to revamp and retool the same resources they just invested in as a means to forge a new path forward.

What does that mean in West Virginia? Perhaps it is time for higher education leaders, state lawmakers and other stakeholders to begin discussions on just what the college marketplace looks like moving forward. There are 11 public, four-year higher education institutions in West Virginia. Is that too many? Not enough? Are there too many duplicative programs being offered? Can technology be better utilized so institutions can be more efficient from an administrative standpoint?

Those questions and others need answered. Enrollment at some of the state’s public universities already is low. Here are the fall 2022 enrollment figures, as reported by the West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission:

– West Virginia University (includes the WVU Institute of Technology and Potomac State College)– 27,467;

– Marshall — 10,831;

– West Virginia State — 3,792;

– Fairmont State — 3,497;

– Shepherd — 3,307;

– West Liberty — 2,314;

– Concord — 1,752;

– Glenville State — 1,645;

– Bluefield State — 1,295.

WVU, for example, is projecting 21,000 full-time students by 2033. If that number holds, the university will see a more than 30% decrease in enrollment from 2014, when 31,000 students attended.

The problem is real, and the time for leaders to address it in a more comprehensive manner is now. Continuing to wait will only lead to more issues down the line.