I don’t know if things have cooled down behind-the-scenes, but it appears that U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is backing the permitting reform package that U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., negotiated with Democratic congressional leadership.

Capito has staked out her own path on permitting reform for oil, natural gas, and other energy projects. First, there was a failed amendment to the Inflation Reduction Act to try to get Democratic U.S. Senators on the record in support of permitting reform earlier versus waiting for it to be tied to a continuing resolution needed to fund the federal government after the end of September.

Second, as we have reported, Capito introduced her own permitting reform bill just over two weeks ago. Manchin and others wrote it off as a mere messaging bill. It had nearly all Republican U.S. Senators on as co-sponsors, but in a 50/50 Senate, you need to get to 60 votes to override the filibuster and get the bill on the floor for consideration.

Capito’s bill came about because Manchin and Democratic congressional leadership had left Republicans in the dark and had not consulted with them. The bill language had been kept under wraps up until last Thursday.

Manchin was putting pressure on Capito to deliver Republican votes for his proposal, but Capito had publicly expressed annoyance with being asked to provide votes when no Republicans had seen the language. Reporters received a briefing on the proposal on background an hour before the language was released, so we had a heads up before many Senate Republicans did.

But by the next day, Capito said she was on board the Manchin permitting reform plan. But will other Senate Republicans follow? And even if you can get to 60 votes with Republican votes making up for several Democratic Senators jumping ship, can Manchin get his permitting reform package through the House, where only a simple majority is needed?

It’s been reported that more than 80 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives will not vote for a continuing resolution if the permitting reform language is attached. Manchin hopes the potential for a government shutdown will bring Democrats into line. But if climate change is the immediate crisis that many on the left say it is, why wouldn’t they be willing to shut down the government in order to prevent Manchin’s even fossil fuel permitting package from happening?

And what incentive will Republicans have for saving Manchin’s bacon? They feel betrayed by Manchin’s abrupt reversal that led to passage of the inappropriately named Inflation Reduction Act (it’s largely a clean energy technology bill with some health care thrown in). Sure, Republicans want permitting reform, but they could be inclined to let Manchin twist in the wind.

I don’t think anyone wants to shut the government down this close to the midterm elections, but Republicans have shut down the government before and this time Democrats might actually get the blame since they control the legislative branch. While the Senate Republicans might give Manchin the votes to avoid a filibuster, Democratic progressives in the House could cause some real issues.

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I wrote a few weeks back speculating about Manchin’s political motivations for supporting the Inflation Reduction Act, including the fact that he had secured support from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for permitting reform.

At the time, I speculated that Manchin could see the political writing on the wall at the time that Democrats could possibly keep the Senate in November. Manchin has a lot of power as one of two moderate Democrats, but if Democrats pick up seats in November, Manchin’s power gets diluted. It was either now or never to secure much-needed permitting reform.

But many prognosticators and some polls show that perhaps things are moving back in the directions of Republicans. Most believe the House was always going to flip in November, but now many think Republicans can clinch the majority in the Senate, even if it is a 51-49 majority.

Manchin is the last statewide elected Democratic official in West Virginia. Republicans are already sharpening their knives in anticipation of 2024. Republicans in Congress will have to decide if they want to give Manchin one final win or let him go down in flames when he can’t even secure enough Democrats to get permitting reform done.

The worst-case scenario is a government shutdown. The best-case scenario is the continuing resolution moves forward but an attempt to amend permitting reform to the CR fails. Then Manchin will have to spend two years explaining why permitting reform failed and why he supported the Inflation Reduction Act, especially if the Federal Reserve can’t reverse inflation rates quickly.

It could be a tough two years until Manchin’s re-election.