The fight between Gov. Jim Justice and Republican lawmakers over Amendment 2 heated up last week with the Governor attempting to offer voters an alternative to the constitutional amendment when it comes to vehicles tangible personal property taxes.

For those not reading my stories and columns over the last several weeks, Amendment 2 on the Nov. 8 ballot would amend the state Constitution by giving the Legislature authority to reduce or eliminate six categories of tangible personal property taxes, including the annual tax on vehicles.

I have talked about the draft bill that some in state Senate Republican leadership have that would eliminate those taxes and replace the lost revenue to counties and school systems with money from the general revenue budget and additional funding to all 55 counties based on a formula.

Combined with a 10% personal income tax cut included in the proposed legislation, the plan would return more than $800 million to taxpayers beginning in July IF Amendment 2 is approved by voters next month and IF the Legislature passes that bill in the 2023 session in January.

But let’s put that draft bill aside for a moment. It’s likely to go through changes by drafters between November and the start of session and will likely be amended several times during the 60-day session and be completely different by the time it would pass.

As we saw during the recent special session on abortion, it’s possible for Republicans in the state Senate and House of Delegates to disagree on amendments to bills even with supermajority status in both chambers. Amendment 2 itself does not reduce or eliminate any tax, so there is no guarantee of what might happen with those taxes. While Republicans in the House support Amendment 2, I’ve only heard a handful express support for the Senate Republicans’ plan.

Let’s just say, for the sake of speculation about the future, that the only tangible personal property tax that might get eliminated next year if Amendment 2 is approved is the tax on vehicles: would you, as a voter, rather have the tax completely eliminated with the Legislature replacing the lost tax revenue to counties with funds from the general revenue budget; or would you rather still pay those taxes to your county sheriff, but receive a rebate later in the way of a credit on your state income taxes?

That’s the choice that Justice wants voters to consider as he travels the state opposing Amendment 2. I don’t envy him the task of trying to educate voters about his draft bill to give residents back what they pay counties for their vehicle tangible personal property taxes as credits or refunds as part of their personal income tax filings with nine days until early voting starts and 23 days until Election Day.

And if Amendment 2 fails and with all the mudslinging from Justice at legislators, calling Charleston “the swamp,” accusing lawmakers of being in the pockets of out-of-state corporations and willing to bankrupt counties, I don’t envy Justice trying to get his vehicle tax plan passed in 2023.

Senate President Craig Blair, R-Berkeley, told me in his office last week that Justice should “go play for the other team” and switch back from Republican to Democrat. House Speaker Roger Hanshaw, R-Clay, went on WAJR radio in Morgantown and called Justice’s attacks on lawmakers “offensive.” Whether Amendment 2 is approved by voters or not, Justice is ensuring himself a lame duck status for his remaining two years as Governor.

Expect lawmakers to push through legislation early in 2023 that finally ends West Virginia’s state of emergency for COVID-19. Can you believe that West Virginia is one of 13 states that still has a state of emergency? COVID-19 is not over, but there appears to be no reason for West Virginia to remain in a state of emergency except it gives the Governor more authority over spending and allows for no-bid contracting.

Depending on how the independent review of the Department of Health and Human Resources goes, expect lawmakers to try again to split DHHR into two. If I were Justice, I would expect to receive any number of bills that he may not like. Sure, he can use his veto power, but expect lawmakers to pass bills early enough to be able to override vetoes with simple majorities.

The fact is that even though Justice switched from Democrat to Republican in 2017 (doing so with former president Donald Trump by his side), Republican lawmakers have always treated Justice with cautious skepticism. Those relations had thawed a good deal, but this drama over tax reform is sure to put those relations back on ice.

Sure, Justice is once again in the top 10 of most popular governors according to the quarterly approval numbers released by Morning Consult this week, coming in sixth with 65% approval among West Virginia respondents. Justice is a likable guy and having Babydog with him helps. But Justice is also term-limited. He will need to do more than trot out Babydog to win back over the Republican-led Legislature.