Will Gov. Jim Justice run in the 2024 U.S. Senate race to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin? I honestly would be surprised if he goes through with it, but could he win? It’s certainly possible.

Justice said last week he is giving a Senate run some serious thought. He originally hinted at such a run back in September to my colleague Joselyn King in Wheeling.

Comparing vote totals for Manchin’s 2018 re-election to the U.S. Senate to Justice’s re-election as governor reveals a possible lopsided victory for Justice if he can make it through a Republican primary in 2024 to challenge Manchin (and if Manchin can win his Democratic primary, but I see no scenarios where he would lose such a primary).

According to historic election results from the West Virginia Secretary of State’s Office, there were 586,034 votes cast in the 2018 general election for the U.S. Senate, with 290,510 votes cast for Manchin, who defeated Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by 3.3 points.

There were 768,804 votes cast in the 2020 general election for governor, with 497,944 votes cast for Justice, who defeated Democratic Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango by nearly 34 points. Comparing their vote totals, Justice received 204,434 more votes than Manchin.

It’s sort of an unfair comparison as 2020 was a presidential election with former president Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket in the most pro-Trump state in the nation. Manchin’s 2018 election was a midterm, though turnout was higher than past midterms. But with the real possibility of Trump being at the top of the 2024 ballot in West Virginia, that’s going to bode well for whatever Republican ends up with the Senate nomination to challenge Manchin.

With Justice being in the top 10 for the last few quarters of Morning Consult’s governors’ favorability rankings and coming off a successful defeat of Amendment 2, Justice is riding high. And while Republican lawmakers remain bitter about the defeat of Amendment 2, they might welcome Justice being distracted by a Senate campaign.

Also, with the possibility of Trump’s return (assuming he can survive the primaries), that could mean the real possibility of a Trump endorsement for Justice. After all, Justice switched parties from Democrat to Republican in 2017 at the urging of Trump. Justice and Trump are friends, and even Donald Trump Jr. has come to West Virginia to hunt with Justice.

Of course, Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., is running for U.S. Senate after just winning the election to the newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District. And his Trump endorsement during the 2022 Republican primary played a large role in his victory over 1st District Congressman David McKinley. But if Trump is given a choice of endorsing Justice or Mooney, I suspect he will pick Justice.

But SHOULD Justice run for Senate? Can he do the job if he gets elected? He can’t vote from his home in Lewisburg. Commuting between Lewisburg and Washington D.C. isn’t feasible (though due to the former congressional nuclear bomb shelter at the Greenbrier Resort, D.C. and White Sulphur Springs are directly connected via Amtrak). And he can’t drive his SUV up to the doors of the Senate chamber.

Justice’s age and health could be real factors to consider. He can’t stand for long periods of time, so don’t expect a standing filibuster ala “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” As someone pointed out on Twitter, Justice would be 73 if he wins the election and takes office in 2025, making him the oldest first-time senator in history.

Sure, Manchin is older than Justice by four years (Manchin is 75), but Manchin also appears to be in much better health. And I have walked with Manchin from his offices in the Hart Senate Office Building to the U.S. Capitol, which is not a short walk. I doubt I could do the same with Justice.

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Of course, it remains to be seen what Manchin does. Will he run for re-election? Manchin has stated in the past his dislike of the Senate, saying at one point that it “sucks” back when the Republicans held the majority. He almost left the Senate in 2020 to make a run for governor, but ultimately decided to stay.

That worked out well for him when the Senate went 50/50 and the Democrats took the majority thanks to the tie-breaking vote Vice President Kamala Harris has. Manchin has been able to use his power as the 50th vote to secure priorities in the American Rescue Plan Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. He’s also been able to influence the drafting of other bills to dampen progressive tendencies.

However, with his failure on permitting reform and his support for the poorly named Inflation Reduction Act, Manchin has taken a drop in popularity according to the most recent Morning Consult polling among West Virginia respondents.

Yet, could a presidential primary run be in Manchin’s future? My friend Chris Stirewalt seems to think so, saying so on a recent podcast. Charleston Gazette-Mail Executive Editor Lee Wolverton also posited the scenario of a Manchin presidential run. If President Joe Biden hadn’t committed himself to picking a woman of color for vice president, I could have seen a Biden/Manchin ticket in 2020.

Considering Biden hasn’t been the moderate Democrat that many expected coupled with his age and other issues, Manchin could be a candidate that appeals to the middle of the country. But we will see soon enough what path Manchin takes.