A red wave might not have crashed to shore nationwide after Tuesday’s midterm elections, but two states definitely saw that red wave: Florida and West Virginia.

In a way, Tuesday’s unofficial election results were a win for both Gov. Jim Justice and the Republican-led West Virginia Legislature.

It was a short-term win for Justice, who was able to see Amendment 2, which would have given the Legislature the authority to exempt six categories of tangible personal property taxes upon which counties and school systems rely, go down to a major defeat.

Using the modern-day bully pulpit of barnstorming the state, YouTube live-streams and media coverage, Justice was a notable member of a coalition of county and city leaders, teacher unions and a liberal advocacy group that uses “budget” in its title that opposed the amendment. There are many factors why Amendment 2 failed, such as low-information voters, scared county workers and a general distrust of centralized control in Charleston, but there is no doubt that Justice played a role in its defeat.

I said last week that if voters approved Amendment 2, then the remaining three amendments were likely to be approved as well. The inverse of that is with people voting against Amendment 2, they also rejected the other three amendments. In hindsight, it was probably a bad idea to put all four amendments on the ballot at once. It was information overload even though all four amendments were relatively simple.

But despite the loss of all four amendments, it was a fantastic night for Republicans in the Senate and the House of Delegates. That could very well mean a bad two years for Justice, so a short-term victory on the amendments could be a long-term problem as Justice finishes out his remaining two years as governor.

I try not to make predictions and when I do, I try to keep my predictions conservative. I had no way to gauge how well Republicans would do in the House with this being the first year of 100 single-member districts, but I knew they would pick up more than the 77 seats they had. But a 10-seat pick-up to 88 seats is huge.

I thought Republicans in the Senate would pick up an additional three or four seats. I even scoffed with a Republican in Senate leadership who predicted a seven-seat pick-up. But that’s what happened, taking them from 23 seats to 30 seats. The Democratic caucus can now easily get a booth at Applebee’s with only four members left.

I spent most of my election night with Amendment 2 supporters in Charleston, where several lawmakers were at. Sure, there was disappointment that the amendments failed, but there was happiness at the Republican legislative gains. There was also a sense that lawmakers would avenge the loss of the amendments by making Justice a lame duck for the next two years.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Eric Tarr, R-Putnam, told WV MetroNews Talkline Host Hoppy Kercheval that Justice told him the reason he campaigned so hard against Amendment 2 was revenge for Senate Republicans blocking his 10% personal income tax cut. I have no idea if that is true, but Tarr told Hoppy that other than the budget bill, Justice can expect his legislative agenda to be blocked.

It’s apparent that Justice and his advisors are falling back on the successful vote against Amendment 2 and his overall popularity as a hedge against future lawmaker opposition. Sure, Justice is popular. So what? He is also limited to two terms and his second term is almost up.

Republicans now have the numbers to easily pass bills without the need for a single Democratic vote. They have the numbers to override vetoes. They have the votes to pass bills in one single day. They have the votes to easily bring themselves in for special sessions without the governor.

Expect bills to end the COVID-19 state of emergency (finally), some form of tax reform, and if you think that $1 million report that came out at the end of last week that made milquetoast recommendations for changes at the Department of Health and Human Resources has satisfied the desire of lawmakers to split DHHR into two, you’d be wrong. That bill is coming back, as well as other reforms to how it operates.

The truth is Republican lawmakers have always been suspicious of Justice since his switch in the summer of 2017 from Democrat to Republican. That distrust eased some once Justice won the 2020 primary for governor, and the COVID-19 pandemic put that distrust on ice for a couple of years.

With Justice sinking not one but four constitutional amendments, with the personal attacks on Republican legislative leadership, linking arm-and-arm with the National Education Association and local Democratic leaders during his anti-Amendment 2 campaign, and thumbing his nose at the state Republican Party platform, Republican lawmakers are back in distrust mode.

I have no idea if Justice plans to run for the U.S. Senate or another office in West Virginia, but he definitely can’t run for a third consecutive term as governor. He will be gone and many of the Republican legislative leaders he thumbed his nose at will still be here in the years to come. He will have to learn to sink or swim in this red wave.