Tomorrow is the big day: Election Day. We political and state government reporters often look forward to elections. It’s like taking the field as a football player at the beginning of the new season. But when we get to the final day, we’re all just happy for it to be over … then we start looking forward to the next election.

I really didn’t expect this election cycle in West Virginia to be that interesting. There are far more interesting races in neighboring Ohio and Pennsylvania. Most political prognosticators I know don’t see any circumstances where Republican congressional incumbents Alex Mooney or Carol Miller get knocked out. Some statehouse races here are hotter than others, but most have been relatively tame.

Who knew constitutional amendments could be so contentious? The 2018 amendment dealing with abortion didn’t bring out as much controversy as Amendment 2 on the ballot tomorrow allowing the Legislature to make changes to tangible personal property taxes.

If I had to rank them based on contentious, Amendment 2 would be at the top of the list, followed by Amendment 4 which would give the Legislature rule-making review authority of the state Board of Education, Amendment 1 which would make it clearer than it already is that impeachment proceedings are not subject to interference from the judiciary, and Amendment 3 which would allow churches to incorporate if they wish.

More than $1.3 million has been spent by pro and anti-Amendment 2 advocates with West Virginia TV stations as of last week, with the National Education Association dropping more than $860,000 alone on an ad opposing both amendments 2 and 4. You can’t miss that ad because they paid for a lot of spots throughout the day on multiple stations.

So, with a near-million dollar TV ad buy — not counting radio ads, newspaper ads, and mailers – and with Gov. Jim Justice traveling the state to oppose Amendment 2, and a coalition of groups opposing the amendment, surely it will fail, right? I wouldn’t hold my breath.

First thing is first: I’m going to handicap Amendment 2 but my prediction is not an endorsement. My personal opinion is we either need to do tax reform – whether it’s through tangible personal property taxes or personal income taxes – or we need to have more accurate tax revenue estimates and appropriate what we’re actually bringing in. It’s not like there are not needs.

But I think voters will approve Amendment 2 and if they do, they will likely approve all four amendments. There will be some high-information voters who are informed who will likely split up their votes, but as much as I wish people follow my reporting on these issues, many potential voters simply have blocked out all the news stories and noise and will make up their minds tomorrow in the voting booth.

With inflation, the potential for a recession (if we’re not already in one), and high prices in general, the chance for lower taxes will be enough for some voters even if they don’t understand that Amendment 2 doesn’t itself eliminate those taxes (it will still be up to the Legislature to pass a bill to exempt those taxes). And depending on how much your motor vehicle taxes are, that could be a pretty small benefit.

And again, if they vote for Amendment 2, I expect they will vote for the other three amendments. Amendment 4 has gotten some attention, but not as much as Amendment 2. Amendment 1 is really only interesting to attorneys and those with PTSD from the 2018 impeachment of the state Supreme Court. And Amendment 3 largely just makes something legal that was being allowed anyway.

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As I said, the 2024 election starts pretty much the day after Tuesday with all eyes on U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. My friend and Associated Press super-reporter Leah Willingham had a good preview of what could be a match-up between Manchin and 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., assuming Mooney is victorious over Democratic opponent Barry Wendell.

I suspect Mooney won’t be the only likely candidate for U.S. Senate. In fact, 2024 is going to be a busy time for potential Republican and Democratic statewide candidates. Both U.S. House of Representatives seats will be up again. Gov. Jim Justice is term-limited, so the governor’s seat will be a free-for-all. All other Board of Public Works seats will be up as well.

Expect a food fight among high-profile Republicans for those seats and expect the West Virginia Democratic Party to work on its bench of candidates to rise to the challenge.

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Elon Musk has not scared me off of Twitter yet, so feel free to follow me there at @stevenadamswv. I’ll be live-tweeting Tuesday night when polls close from my command center in the basement of the State Capitol Building as I follow preliminary election results on the amendments and congressional races. I’ll also be monitoring statehouse races to see what incumbents might get knocked out.