If the West Virginia governor’s race is a swimming pool, Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s entrance into the race was akin to that one kid yelling “cannonball” before jumping into the deep end.

Between a three-day announcement tour last week and two independent groups pledging millions of dollars on Morrisey’s behalf, he certainly did make a big splash, becoming the latest entrant into the governor’s race.

With the conservative Club for Growth and Black Bear PAC (a pro-Morrisey political action committee whose leader is an older Morrisey political operative) endorsing Morrisey and pledging a combined $10 million for his election effort, one can’t help but wonder whether the full-court press is being done as a favor.

I don’t mean that in a negative sense, but anyone who has talked to me about Morrisey believes that in his heart, he would much rather be running for U.S. Senate. Most of Morrisey’s work as Attorney General seems aimed at either getting him to Washington, D.C., before the U.S. Supreme Court or at least guest appearances on Fox News and other conservative news outlets.

He came so close to being West Virginia’s next U.S. senator in 2018, but U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., beat him narrowly. No doubt that Morrisey would like another shot at Manchin. But the Club for Growth already invested a lot of money in U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., for his 2nd Congressional District Republican primary against former U.S. Rep. David McKinley.

Mooney wasted no time in announcing his run for U.S. Senate after securing his re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives last November. Club for Growth very quickly endorsed Mooney for his Senate race. It remains to be seen if Gov. Jim Justice also runs in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, but he’s under a lot of pressure to do so, including by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and his Senate Leadership Fund.

Point being, if you were to have both Mooney and Morrisey in the U.S. Senate Republican primary, both would compete for money and also split the Eastern Panhandle vote, paving the way for Justice — someone the Club for Growth doesn’t like. So, I can’t help but feeling like Morrisey is being strongly encouraged to stay out of the Senate race.

Chris Stirewalt of NewsNation and The Dispatch expressed a similar view Friday on WV MetroNews Talkline with host Hoppy Kercheval. The theory is that in exchange for Morrisey staying out of the Senate race, these third-party groups are making money and resources available. Morrisey already has a new communications director in Taylor Van Kirk, fresh off of the J.D. Vance U.S. Senate campaign.

I always say you have to have money in order to run. I know some of you hate the amount of money in politics. I get that, but also it costs real money for an operation, marketing, materials, etc. It remains to be seen how much money Morrisey himself can bring in. He’s famed for accruing campaign debts that he has to raise money for just to retire. But having $10 million that independent groups can drop on his opponents gives Morrisey real leverage.

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But just because you have access to the most money doesn’t mean you can win an election either. Not enough money can overcome voter fatigue. It did former Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in in 2016 when she was defeated by Republican Mac Warner.

By 2016, Tennant had been on the ballot five times: her first election as Secretary of State in 2008, her failed special primary election campaign for governor in 2010, her second term as Secretary of State in 2012, her failed election to the U.S. Senate in 2014 when former congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito defeated her, and her loss to Warner in 2016. That fatigue continued to 2020 when Tennant tried to get her seat back, losing again to Warner.

Morrisey has been on the ballot since he defeated long-time Democratic Attorney General Darrell McGraw in 2012. He won re-election to a second term in 2016, then made his unsuccessful U.S. Senate attempt in 2018. He was re-elected to a third term as Attorney General in 2020. His 2024 gubernatorial campaign will make his fifth time on a statewide ballot.

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As mentioned above, Morrisey will have a key advantage thanks to being an Eastern Panhandle resident. It was no mistake that he announced his run for governor in Harpers Ferry.

Morrisey is the only big name running for governor who can claim the Eastern Panhandle. Some have connections to Morgantown, North Central West Virginia, the Kanawha Valley and Huntington. But the Eastern Panhandle has been flexing its electoral muscles recently. It’s an advantage that should not be discounted.