Is this the week that Republican Gov. Jim Justice announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin?

I had sources tell me two weeks ago that Justice had a day in mind, though the source declined to say what day that would be. Capitol Hill-based news outlet Politico pegged a possible announcement to the end of this week. A Politico report late last week put the announcment day as Thursday at The Greenbrier resort, according to an invitation the outlet obtained.

I’m unsure if this is a coincidence or not, but a group with some links to the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is launching Manchin attack ads next week. According to AdImpact Politics, a group called One Nation purchased more than $1.35 million on West Virginia TV stations for anti-Manchin ads beginning May 1.

According to further reporting from Politico, the ads will be focused Manchin’s negotiations and support for the $738 billion Inflation Reduction Act. The IRA is extremely unpopular in West Virginia despite Manchin’s repeated effort to explain its benefits to the state and his pointed attacks on the administration of President Joe Biden for its poor implementation of several of the bill’s provisions.

If you recall, Manchin only had a 40% approval rating in Morning Consult’s quarterly U.S. Senate poll according to voters in West Virginia, with 53% disapproving of Manchin’s job performance. Manchin, I’m sure, is well aware of these numbers, as he has been taking a metaphorical baseball bat to Biden over the last several months. That poll was conducted between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31 in the weeks and months after the IRA was signed into law.

Fast forward to last Wednesday. In Morning Consult’s quarterly U.S. Senate poll conducted between Jan. 1 and March 31 shows Manchin’s job approval numbers getting worse. Manchin’s approval rating was 38% and his disapproval rating was 55% with 8% unsure or having no opinion.

By comparison, Justice remains in the top five of the most popular governors in the U.S. Justice has a 66% job approval rating, with only 31% disapproving. When comparing the two, Manchin is popular with 49% of respondents who also approve of Justice, but Justice is popular with 86% of respondents who also approve of Manchin.

“In Justice, national Republicans see a candidate who could overcome Manchin’s deep roots and political resilience as a Democrat in a dark-red state, driven in part by the governor’s enormous appeal to people who also like Manchin, whose popularity is far worse than it was at a similar point in the 2018 cycle,” wrote Morning Consult’s Eli Yokley.

According to Yokley, the one thing Justice is waiting on before jumping into the U.S. Senate race is an endorsement from former president Donald Trump. If you recall, Trump endorsed 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney in the 2022 Republican primary over former U.S. Rep. David McKinley. However, unlike Mooney, Justice has a real friendship with the Trump family.

It was Trump that convinced Justice to switch parties from Democrat to Republican in 2017 at a rally in Huntington. Justice hunts with Donald Trump Jr. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, Justice was one of the few governors who could disagree with Trump publicly over pandemic policy and not incur Trump’s wrath.

Trump remains wildly popular in West Virginia despite his many obvious problems. An endorsement from Trump will go a long way. During the 2022 primary, Mooney had to go to Mar-a-Lago to score the photo-op with Trump. The closest Trump came to West Virginia in 2022 was a rally in Pennsylvania that they let Mooney speak at. Trump participated in at least one tele-town hall with Mooney, but that was it.

If Trump and Justice can be seen on stage anywhere in West Virginia in 2023 or 2024, Mooney will be in big trouble.

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The House of Delegates picked up another Republican last Monday with the party switch by Del. Elliott Pritt, D-Fayette. That took the 100-member House from 88 Republicans to 89, leaving just 11 Democratic lawmakers.

Pritt is a freshman lawmaker who only won his 2022 election by 3.6% against former Republican delegate Austin Haynes after it was revealed that Haynes allegedly pressured a citizen lobbyist for sex acts in exchange for helping her with legislation. There is a pending lawsuit over those allegations now. If those allegations had not come out just prior to the November 2022 election, Pritt likely wouldn’t be a lawmaker.

Pritt was unopposed in his 2022 primary. He came in seventh in the 2018 general election for the same seat as a Mountain Party candidate with 6% of the vote. According to the state Democratic Party, Pritt self-identified as a socialist before that.

Pritt, a public school teacher, was named as the minority vice chairman of the House Education Committee and was a pretty vocal progressive antagonist, speaking often in committee meetings and on the House floor. But he also went against his own caucus on several social bills, including voting for the near-total ban on medication gender affirming care for teens.

Switching parties is not uncommon ever since the Republicans took the majority in the Legislature in 2015. It’s probably a smart move given Elliott is one of the few elected Democrats in southern West Virginia, but is it a smart move for him? His vocalness during the session attacking Republicans will likely come back to bite him. Ask former Raleigh County delegate Mick Bates how switching from Democrat to Republican worked out for him.