U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin is between a rock and a hard place. I don’t envy the choice he will ultimately have to make, likely as soon as the end of the year.

Manchin, D-W.Va., is up for reelection in 2024 for a third six-year term as the state’s senior senator. He’s been in the Senate since winning a special election to succeed the late Sen. Robert C. Byrd, who died in office.

While once one of West Virginia’s most popular elected officials, things have changed for Manchin. When he first stepped down as governor halfway through his second term, most West Virginians were registered Democrats, the Legislature was firmly in Democratic hands, all of the Board of Public Works were Democrats, there was only one Republican in Congress and only one Republican on the state Supreme Court of Appeals.

That script has since flipped. Republicans have a majority in voter registration that keeps growing. The Legislature has Republican supermajorities in the House of Delegates and state Senate. The governor and the entire elected Board of Public Works are Republicans. All but two members of the Supreme Court are Republicans. And Manchin is the last Democrat representing the state on Capitol Hill.

Manchin barely won his 2018 reelection to the Senate against Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. And now, nearly every poll that has come out since the beginning of the year shows Manchin losing in a scenario where Gov. Jim Justice becomes the Republican nominee for Senate next year. And not losing narrowly, but by a landslide.

Manchin is notorious for building anticipation for his election announcements. He famously said the Senate “sucks” after foundering in the minority, which called into question whether he would run for reelection to the Senate in 2018. And even in 2020, Manchin toyed with running for governor again, only to finally announce he would not do that.

And now, Manchin won’t decide on reelection until the end of this year. So, what will he do? Manchin is on the record saying he will win any election he enters, but if his own internals show him losing to Justice or another Republican nominee, will he simply not run?

As I said in a previous column, it would be a mistake to underestimate Manchin and his ability to get reelected. He’s the king of retail politics in West Virginia. But Manchin is also not an idiot or blind. But what is he to do?

Possibly run for president. There is a lot of chatter about Manchin making a run as part of an effort of the moderate political advocacy group No Labels. He was just in New Hampshire last week with former Republican Utah governor and failed presidential candidate Jon Huntsman. While he kept denying his being in New Hampshire, an early presidential primary state, was to test the waters on a presidential run, that didn’t stop speculation.

There is a lot of pressure to keep Manchin out of the race. With No Labels trying to gain ballot access in key states, some believe Manchin could take votes away from the Democratic nominee (likely to be President Joe Biden, though some in that caucus would rather someone younger run). That could pave the way for former Republican president Donald Trump if he gets the GOP nomination.

But No Labels keeps talking about a unity ticket, meaning a Democrat and a Republican president/vice president ticket. That could pit Manchin against Biden himself for the Democratic nomination. No Labels has said they will only consider running their unity ticket if it looks like 2024 will be a Biden/Trump 2020 rematch. But Manchin is unpopular both in West Virginia and nationwide. Can he beat Biden head-to-head?

Again, Manchin has said he will win whatever race he enters, but the window is closing on a Senate victory and a presidential victory is uphill. But it seems clear Biden and other Democratic leaders want Manchin to stay in the Senate.

The language to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline and protect it from legal interference was put in the June debt ceiling deal. Manchin’s role in making that happen is dubious, but the White House surely understood including that was something that would make Manchin happy. What about the $1.2 billion for broadband expansion coming to the state from the feds? Biden invited Manchin to the official announcement and gave him a shoutout.

I’m willing to bet Manchin will extract other concessions and goodies for West Virginia from Biden and congressional Democratic leaders between now and when he decides about his political future. But Manchin will have to pull the trigger on a decision unless he is given another lifeline.

What could that lifeline be? I could speculate. But at the end of the day, I just don’t see Manchin taking a humiliating defeat against Justice, and a presidential run, even a losing one, has its benefits, but many downsides. Again, I do not envy Manchin.