Candidates Jockey for ‘Poll’ Position
I feel like I’ve been writing a lot about polling this summer, especially about polling of the Republican race for West Virginia’s next governor, but events last week are causing me to write once again.
The West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, WV MetroNews and Research America chief pollster Rex Repass have taken a beating after a data mistake caused them to release a poll showing Attorney General Patrick Morrisey down further than he actually was.
The annual West Virginia Poll released on Sept. 1 had Morrisey down 23% compared to 32% for House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito. But by Wednesday, Repass announced via MetroNews there was a data error and Morrisey actually had 27% support instead of 23%. All other poll results remained unchanged.
Morrisey, who had already denounced the results as a “fake poll,” was quick to put out another press release attacking the poll and also MetroNews.
“As we have said from the beginning, this is a fake poll,” said Jai Chabria, a senior strategist for the Morrisey campaign. “Errors of this magnitude are why West Virginians continue to lose trust in the media. This is a total disservice to West Virginia voters who won’t be deceived, misled and taken advantage of by establishment institutions. Make no mistake about it, Patrick Morrisey is the conservative in this race and will be the next Governor of West Virginia.”
I’m unsure why a strategist would want to draw the attention of people to a poll, whether bad or not, that still shows your candidate down compared to someone else. Repass went on MetroNews to explain the error and they posted a story. They were transparent about the mistake, which is really all one can ask for.
On the heels of the Morrisey press release attacking the poll came a press release (and plea for donations) from the campaign of Secretary of State Mac Warner, who has never been above single digits in any poll I’ve seen for governor.
“The whole poll was nuts,” the press release stated. “Now they are changing the numbers after it was released? This is a faker poll then the last fake poll that was released.”
Now, I have written about my criticisms of the state Chamber/Orion Strategies poll released in July and the Chamber/MetroNews West Virginia Poll released last week. But neither poll is a “fake” poll. All polling should be scrutinized, methodology cited and the form of questions looked at. These are fair questions. As someone who enjoys political polls, I do my hardest to let you, the reader, know the methodology of the polls I write about.
No polls are perfect and some poll types are better than others. But all polls are merely snapshots in time and all provide value.
Was the West Virginia Poll perfect? No. I think simply relying on online responses instead of the mix of phone and online responses typically used in the past by Repass likely skewed the poll toward urban voters with better broadband access versus rural voters. Because of that, it’s not much of a surprise that Capito plays better with urban Republicans than Morrisey does.
I think issues with the poll can be pointed out without calling it “fake.” I also think it is bad form to attack a media outlet (MetroNews) known for being fair and middle-of-the-road. These candidates see their counterparts on the national level attack the media and try to mimic that at the local level. No doubt there are news organizations in West Virginia with blatant biases, but I think most of us try to tell it to you straight down the middle. MetroNews is one of those that remains fair and balanced.
Look, I’m not one of those who thinks attacking the media is like attacking democracy itself. I’ve been yelled at by Gov. Jim Justice. Politicians yelling at media is not a new or even a dangerous phenomenon. But I do think attacking the media when it is not warranted erodes trust in the media. The West Virginia Poll shows that only 25% of respondents had trust in the news media.
Polling is expensive. Good polling is very expensive. I appreciate anyone or any organization who takes the time to conduct polling. My advice to anyone complaining about the polls that are out there to put their money where their mouth is and pay for polling.
Better yet, I know the top candidates are doing their own internal polling. Campaigns will often release their internal polls to press, but only when the polls show their candidate leading. And as much as some candidates are complaining about Repass not releasing the cross-tabs on the West Virginia Poll, I’ve yet to see any campaign who sent me internal polls give me cross-tabs. I’m lucky if a campaign willingly releases methodology.
Reporters and the public must take internal polls with a large salt shaker Jimmy Buffett-style, but sometimes internal polls are on the nose, like the internals U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney was releasing during the 2022 Republican primary against former U.S. Rep. David McKinley.
Notice how none of the campaigns for governor have released their internal polling? I suspect many of these internal polls show their candidate behind or they are having the same problem with polling as Orion Strategies and Rex Repass. Because at the end of the day, with many West Virginians switching from landlines to cell phones and with broadband access making online polling problematic, polling is just hard in West Virginia.
Worse than that, despite the race for governor (and U.S. Senate for that matter) starting so early, most likely voters are just not yet engaged with statewide races, especially races with multiple candidates. The fact that 29% of respondents on the West Virginia Poll were unsure or did not know who to support for governor tells the story.
If I were in a campaign and down in a poll like this so far out from an election, I wouldn’t attack the poll. I’d laugh, point out it’s too early and voters are not engaged, and vow to get my message out to primary voters.
