I frequently write about the divides I see within the Republican supermajority in the West Virginia Legislature. With no real Democratic opposition to make into adversaries, Republicans have taken to going after each other.

This divide became increasingly noticeable since 2020, especially after the 2022 elections. But expect 2024 to really bring out the divides between what would have been considered the traditional conservatives versus those choosing to align with the populist right.

The biggest fight likely will be in the West Virginia Senate. The House of Delegates is almost always going to be the more-populist body, given that the 100-member body is closer to the people.

But most senators represent more than one county and usually it is the Senate that acts as a check on the more populist House. However, as we saw during the 2023 session, the Senate has a small, but vocal (some might say obnoxious), group of populist conservatives who will tell you at every turn that they are the true conservatives.

When I worked for the Senate when the Republicans took the majority in 2015, some of these far-right members would have been safely ignored. But now, there are enough of them to cause headaches for the Republican leadership. As we go into 2024, however, there is a push to primary sitting Republicans who were considered solid conservatives a few years ago, but are now labeled as Republicans in Name Only, RINO.

The biggest target appears to be Senate President Craig Blair, R-Berkeley. I seem to recall when Blair was in the House of Delegates more than a decade ago, he was considered one of the more far-right members of the House Republican Caucus. I wonder what the Craig Blair of 2010 would say hearing that in 13 years he would be challenged by other Republicans for not being conservative enough. I bet that laugh would be so loud that one could hear it through the space-time continuum.

Now, Blair is being challenged by two fellow Republicans. Tom Willis, an Eastern Panhandle attorney and West Virginia National Guard officer, announced more than a week ago. You might remember Willis from his 2018 run in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. During a debate during the primary, Blankenship wore a Willis for Senate hat because Willis wasn’t allowed to be part of the debate.

The other candidate is Mike Folk, a former Berkeley County delegate and failed candidate for state Senate in 2018 and a failed candidate for governor in 2020. Folk came in third during the 2020 Republican primary with just over 12% of the vote. In 2018, Folk challenged former Democratic state senator John Unger, losing by more than four points.

Now, we’ve seen a sitting Republican Senate President lose an election. That’s what happened to former Jackson County senator and Senate President Mitch Carmichael in 2020 when he lost the Republican primary to now-state Sen. Amy Nichole Grady, R-Mason. But she is a teacher and that was right after the Legislature passed a number of laws teachers didn’t like.

Blair also faced a primary challenge in 2020 from Kenneth Mattson, but Blair won that 52.7% to 47.3% – a more than 5-point difference. With both Willis and Folk jumping in for the 2024 Republican primary, they are more likely to take votes away from each other versus peeling votes away from Blair.

The Blair race will be one of several tests in 2024 pitting these two different types of conservatives, and yes, they are both conservatives. I refuse to play this game where one group calls itself the real conservatives. If you have the populist right on one side, you have the more chamber of commerce-oriented Republicans on the other side.

Other races of interest include House Speaker Pro Tempore Paul Espinosa, R-Jefferson, challenging state Sen. Patricia Rucker, R-Jefferson. Espinosa is more in the mainstream conservative camp, while Rucker has gone further rightward.

Sen. Robert Karnes, R-Randolph, is being challenged by Robbie Morris, executive director of the Randolph County Development Authority. Karnes led the charge this year against the more reasonable members of the Senate Republican Caucus, even being removed from the Senate chamber near the end of session after his faction was outmaneuvered on a bill thanks to clever parliamentary procedure.

Of note: Karnes lost a Republican primary in 2018 to former delegate and current state Sen. Bill Hamilton, R-Upshur, who is probably the closest thing to a Democrat that the Senate Republican Caucus has. Karnes lost that race by more than 24 points. Karnes returned to the Senate in 2020, defeating the appointed John Pitsenbarger 54% to 46%.

In the 2nd Senatorial District, Sen. Mike Maroney, R-Marshall, is being challenged by Chris Rose, a former coal miner and electrician who was running in the 2024 Republican primary for U.S. Senate against Gov. Jim Justice and U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney. But despite being to Mooney’s right politically, he was not gaining traction in polling or fundraising. Maroney is more of a moderate conservative, but he won his most recent Republican primary in 2020 by more than 22 points.

Those are just some of the more interesting Senate Republican primary races to watch as of right now. Who will win? The right? Or the righter? Stay tuned.