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Anyone’s Race in GOP Primary for Governor

Last week was a fire hose of political news, from campaign finance reports to new polls to newly registered Republicans running for statewide office.

Let’s start first with campaign fundraising in the 2024 Republican primary for governor. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey might have the most donations for the most recent three-month quarter, but Huntington businessman Chris Miller continues to be a wild card with his more than $3.6 million of cash-on-hand.

Keep in mind, that haul includes both money that can only be used for the primary and money that can be used for the general election. If Miller doesn’t make it out of the primary on May 14, then the remaining money doesn’t matter. However, the biggest chunk of his cash-on-hand comes from three loans to his campaign totaling $2.9 million.

I call Miller the wild card because with that much money, he can drop a bunch of cash on TV and radio ads, billboards, mailers, social media advertising, and other modes of communication and build a profile really quick. Sure, the most recent poll from the state chapter of Americans for Prosperity (which is in the tank for Morrisey) has Miller with 6% support, but a sizable ad buy could bring that number up.

Or, if Miller down the road decides he has no path to governor, he can use some of that money to boost another Republican candidate for governor or even other like-minded candidates down the ballot. He could be a walking, talking political action committee.

Some like to write off Miller as being too goofy, known in the lower half of the state for his whimsical auto dealership commercials. But Miller is also a man who understands the power of TV advertising and someone who knows how to deliver information in 30-second increments. This is a man who launched his campaign in December 2021 and has been biding his time, working Lincoln Day dinners and parades.

It’s now mid-October. Don’t write off Miller or any of the major Republican candidates for governor yet.

I wouldn’t write off Secretary of State Mac Warner off, either. As a retired U.S. Army officer, Warner knows how to fight a battle and knows how to dig in for a siege. Sure, he is down in the polls and fourth among the top four Republican candidates for governor in fundraising, but Warner is not dropping out. Even his wife — Del. Debbie Warner, R-Monongalia — is not seeking another term in the House. Warner will either win the primary or lose and retire.

But if you are expecting Warner to drop out and seek a third term for Secretary of State, that’s not happening. I suspect that is what it took so long for former Kanawha County Democratic delegate and minority leader Doug Skaff to switch parties to Republican and announce a run for Secretary of State.

The rumors of an impending party switch and SOS announcement have been ringing in my ear since June. At one point I had heard this rumor from two very different people who have no connection to each other. So, I spent my summer bothering the Secretary of State’s Office periodically to see if Skaff had switched.

Well, by August Skaff had stepped down as minority leader of the 11-member House Democratic Caucus. By September, Skaff completely resigned from his House seat. And now we are in October, and Skaff finally made the party switch and announced for Secretary of State.

Now, especially since the Republicans took the Legislature after the 2014 elections, we’ve seen Democrats switch to Republican. Former Wyoming County state senator Daniel Hall switched parties after the 2014 election to break a 17-17 tie between the Republicans and Democrats to give the Republicans a 18-16 majority going into 2015.

One need only look at the state’s voter registration which went majority Republican at the beginning of 2021 to see that people have been leaving the Democratic Party and either switching to unaffiliated/independent or Republican. Skaff told Hoppy Kercheval on Thursday’s WV MetroNews Talkline that he’s not the first to switch parties and he won’t be the last.

That’s true, but most people don’t switch parties and immediately announce a run for one of the top statewide elected offices in their new party’s primary. And most were not previously one of the top Democratic elected officials in the state who spent the last few years helping develop the Democratic Party’s legislative agenda.

Skaff is a successful businessman who will be able to self-fund a campaign. He has statewide connections that will help him raise campaign funds. He is president of HD Media, one of the largest newspaper chains in the state. He has been pro-business and pro-tax cuts, which will make him appealing to some Republicans. But he also has a legislative record that could come back to haunt him as a newly minted Republican.

Both the leadership of the state Republican and Democratic parties released statements last week attacking Skaff. If Skaff can unite the two opposing major parties in the state, then who knows what else can happen down the road.

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