For years, I have talked about writing a book about West Virginia political dynamics over the last nearly 14 years called “Domino.”

The book would focus on the state’s political history beginning in 2010 with the death of former U.S. Sen. Robert C. Byrd, a giant in Congress and in the Democratic Party. But the book would largely follow U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., from his final year as governor to whenever his time at the U.S. Senate would be done.

Well, we now know when that will be. Manchin will retire from the U.S. Senate when his term ends in 2024.

You’d think with as much as I’ve written, not just over my lifetime as a reporter but just in the past five years, that writing such a book would come easy for me. It’s nothing for me to turn out 10,000 words or more each week. Yet, the book-writing process largely intimidates me.

I also think I’m somewhat intimidated by the subject: chronicling Manchin, from being at the top of the political food chain in the state and the heir apparent to Byrd to being the lone statewide Democratic elected official in the state.

And also, who can truly determine where the first domino fell? West Virginia was a rock-ribbed Democratic dark blue state for more than 80 years. But even before Republicans took the majority in the Legislature, we had two Republican governors – Cecil Underwood and Arch Moore.

We’ve had Republican members of the House of Representatives occasionally during that time. And this state went for Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988. Just 12 years later, West Virginia went for his son, George W. Bush, in 2000 and 2004. I’m sure you all know how the state went in all presidential elections since then.

But I feel like Manchin is the keystone of the current period of West Virginia politics. Manchin ran for governor in 1996 and lost to Charlotte Pritt in the Democratic primary. If Manchin doesn’t lose that primary, would there have been a Democrats for Underwood coalition that ensured that Pritt loses the general election that year?

Flip to the early 2000s. Manchin successfully uses his service as secretary of state to win election to governor in 2004, is re-elected in 2008, and wins a special election for U.S. Senate in 2010, followed by successful re-elections in 2012 and 2018. I feel it is safe to say that the state Democratic Party from the early 2000s to really the last couple of years has been one molded by Manchin.

But during that time, you saw former statehouse lawmaker Shelley Moore Capito win a U.S. House seat in 2001. In 2010, former Republican state lawmaker and WVGOP chairman David McKinley wins in the former 1st Congressional District after former Democratic congressman Alan Mollohan loses his primary. In 2012, Republican Patrick Morrisey defeats former Democratic Attorney General Darrell McGraw.

In 2014, former Republican state senator Evan Jenkins defeats long-time Democratic 3rd District congressman Nick Rahall, and Capito wins the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by Jay Rockefeller who retired that year. After the 2014 elections, Republicans take the majorities in the House of Delegates and state Senate. In 2016, State Treasurer John Perdue is the last remaining Democrat on the Board of Public Works except for Gov. Jim Justice, who won election as a Democrat that year. But by 2017, Justice flipped to Republican.

By 2020, Justice wins re-election as a Republican Governor, and Perdue is defeated by former Republican state lawmaker Riley Moore, painting the entire Board of Public Works red. The Legislature goes from Republican majorities to supermajorities. And by February 2021, the majority of voter registration in the state flips from Democrat to Republican.

Again, I’m not sure when the first domino fell. But is Manchin the last domino?

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Maybe not. If the elections we saw in Kentucky and Virginia are any indication, there are still pathways for Democratic candidates, even in red states like Kentucky.

The lower house in Virginia’s statehouse went to the Democrats, with both chambers now in Democratic hands. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., is mostly alone in a sea of Kentucky bluegrass red. But he just won re-election last week.

It remains to be seen who all enters the race for the Democratic nomination for governor of West Virginia, but if anyone has a chance of appealing to a wide percentage of voters in the state, it could well be Huntington Mayor Steve Williams. He’s not a partisan Democrat. He identifies as a free market, limited government, fiscal conservative.

It would appear that voters are rejecting fringe party politics, at least at the state level. Once upon a time, the goal of political party primaries was to nominate candidates who had the greatest ability to appeal to as many voters as possible. Manchin has traditionally campaigned as someone who can bring opposing groups together. I recall TV ads for Manchin that had union leaders and chamber of commerce representatives back in the day.

All I’m saying is that dominoes can fall both ways.