The evening of July 21 when national media outlets were reporting that sources close to U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin said he was considering switching back to being a registered Democrat to challenge Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination for president, I knew to wait a day.

Earlier that day, Manchin, I-W.Va., had hit the Sunday morning talk shows to urge President Joe Biden to suspend his candidacy for president, calling on Biden to “pass the torch.” By that afternoon, succumbing to weeks of pressure from actual Democratic leaders following a disastrous debate with former Republican President Donald Trump, Biden announced on social media that he would end his re-election campaign.

Then that Sunday evening, the rumors began spreading that Manchin was preparing to re-join the Democratic Party and put his name in for the presidential nomination during the Democratic National Convention later in August in Chicago. The rumors all seemed to be coming from one source: former Manchin Senate communications person Jonathan Kott.

I expressed frustration at this rumor on social media that night. This is now the third rumor we in the media have had to deal with when it comes to Manchin over the last three months.

First was the rumor back in May following the primary that Huntington Mayor and Democratic candidate for governor Steve Williams was being pressured to drop out of the race so Manchin – then still a registered Democrat – could be put on the ballot in his place. While I do think this was being pushed by certain Republican moderates and Manchin machine people, it was also pretty blatantly ridiculous, as Williams never showed signs of planning to drop from the race.

Second was the timing of Manchin making the switch from a registered Democrat to unaffiliated/independent by a June 1 deadline that would allow him to gather signatures for independent runs for governor or U.S. Senate by Aug. 1. Manchin said at the time he had no intentions of running, yet also said he doesn’t believe in closing doors. As I write this, there have been no signature drives by Manchin to get himself on the November general election ballot as an independent by Thursday.

Frankly, media have been dealing with Manchin and will he/won’t he nonsense for a while. In 2018, there was a question if he would run for a second full six-year term for U.S. Senate, famously saying the Senate “sucks.” There was a question about whether Manchin would run for governor again in 2020. He waited until the last possible moment, then announced at a presser that he would not run for governor, having made a final decision that morning.

We spent the entirety of 2023 also not knowing if Manchin would run for a third term for U.S. Senate, with Manchin saying he would make an announcement at the end of the year. That he did last November. Then we spent several months trying to figure out if Manchin would make a third party run for president with a Republican running mate on a unity ticket. Manchin gave it some serious thought and even went to New Hampshire, but in the end he decided against it.

One has to feel somewhat sorry for Manchin. More than 12 years ago he was the leader of a party that had all the seats on the Board of Public Works and a majority in the state Senate and House of Delegates, not to mention a majority of registered voters. Only then-U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito had an “R” by her name in the state congressional delegation.

Flash forward to now. With Manchin switching to an independent, there are no longer any Democrats in West Virginia’s congressional delegation, none in the Board of Public Works, and only 11 Democratic seats in the Legislature. And Gov. Jim Justice, someone Manchin and his team recruited as a Democratic candidate for governor in 2016, is running for his seat as a Republican.

Manchin is no fool. He saw the polls showing Justice with high popularity and high job approval numbers. Manchin took a tumble in the polling in the state after supporting the Inflation Reduction Act. Nevermind that the state is benefiting from several economic development projects being funded in part by the IRA.

But I do think Manchin has always had a goal of making it to the executive branch, either as cabinet official, vice president, or even president. In fact, I’d say it is likely that Manchin thought the night following Biden bowing out of the presidential race that perhaps there was a window of opportunity for him to get into the nomination fight at the Democratic National Convention.

But Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, and national Democratic leaders quickly coalesced around the former U.S. senator and prosecutor. It happened so fast that Harris broke one-day fundraising records and in less than 24 hours she had enough pledged DNC delegates to lock up the nomination in Chicago later in August.

It was apparent from Manchin’s tone last Monday morning that changed between morning shows that he was mad that the Democratic Party united quickly behind Harris, who he said was too liberal. Manchin wants to see the party lean back towards the middle instead of the left/progressive side. And despite his new claims that he didn’t want to be a presidential candidate, that just doesn’t jive.