It appears as we get closer to the end of Gov. Jim Justice’s final five months as the chief executive of the State of West Virginia, he may be ending his tenure the same way he began it: with a showdown with the Legislature.

Of course, there are differences between now and the 2017 legislative session. Then, the governor was a Democrat dealing with a Republican legislative majority and even a Democratic minority who all were distrustful of Justice at the time. Democratic lawmakers were reluctant to follow his lead, and Republicans had no reason to.

Now, Justice is on his way out the door, expecting a big win in November for the U.S. Senate. As I’ve written before, he very much appears to be checked out when it comes to governing, using his weekly briefings to read press releases and accuse reporters of “fake news” for asking legitimate questions about his businesses of which he is clearly still involved.

And now he is dealing with the Legislature and a Republican supermajority that may agree with him on the need for getting rid of the state’s personal income tax, but not with the pace the governor wants to do it.

It is very clear the governor wants to be able to campaign going into the final months of the general election for the Senate saying he was able to cut personal income tax rates by around 30%. Lawmakers already agreed to cut the personal income tax rate in 2023 by 21.25% thanks to House Bill 2526, and the trigger included in that bill will cut the personal income tax rate by another 4% beginning in January.

Justice wants another 5% personal income tax cut on top of that, which would bring the total percentage cut in personal income tax rates to more than 30%. Oddly enough, this appears to be a redux of Justice’s original 2023 bill that would have cut personal income tax rates by 50% by now had the Legislature agreed to his plan.

The original version of HB 2526 introduced on Justice’s behalf at the beginning of 2023 would have phased in a 50% personal income tax cut, with a 30% cut retroactive to January 2023. Another 10% cut would have kicked in beginning in July 2023 with the start of fiscal year 2024. The final 10% cut would have kicked in July 2024, returning $1.229 billion to taxpayers when fully implemented.

Cutting the personal income tax and phasing it out is a balancing act. It requires new economic development and business growth bringing in new tax-paying residents, it requires government expenses not outpacing the natural annual growth in tax collections.

That can be done by making cuts to government and making government more efficient, but the fact of the matter is we’re underfunding several government services now, and new expenses are kicking in during the out-years, such as when every child in the state becomes eligible for the Hope Scholarship voucher program.

Gov. Justice will not be here next year when the new 4% personal income tax cut from the trigger formula goes into effect, and assuming lawmakers do pass a 5% additional personal income tax cut he won’t be governor when that kicks in either. The next governor and the next group of legislators will have to clean up any mess from being too cavalier with cutting the personal income tax.

Sure, there is a $400 million emergency fund set aside in case there are issues with cutting the personal income tax too quickly or the national economy goes squirrely. But lawmakers want to phase out the personal income tax in a responsible way. They feel it makes no sense to do the additional 5% cut just to give Justice a few extra votes in November.

We in the media have not seen any new polling for the Senate race, though I suspect the WV MetroNews West Virginia Poll will be released at the end of this month during the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce Annual Meeting at Justice’s Greenbrier Resort. But Justice took no real dents in popularity during the primary season. Even with the Greenbrier on the literal auction block at the end of this week (assuming that auction isn’t halted by a local judge), I see nothing that can dent that popularity.

Point being: Justice probably shouldn’t be trying to hang his hat on one final personal income tax cut. And hopefully not getting that tax cut won’t keep the governor from calling a special session, because there are still some issues that need to be addressed, such as a looming shortfall at the end of this month in state subsidies for childcare. If you want to ensure we can cut the personal income tax in the future, then we need to find ways to keep people earning personal income.