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When I was on WV MetroNews Talkline Monday, I said the following:
“…When you have a wave, even if you're not near the wave, sometimes you get splashed by the water. Is West Virginia going to get splashed by the water from the Democratic wave? Yeah, I think so.”
Since then, both long-time dean of the West Virginia journalism corps Hoppy Kercheval and my friend Henry Culvyhouse at West Virginia Watch have given me credit for that quote. I might need to merchandise and trademark that quote.
I’ve been saying for months to expect some Democratic gains in the House of Delegates and state Senate. Not enough to undo the Republican supermajority in both chambers, but enough to reverse more than a decade of losses of seats.
The Democrats had nowhere to go but up after 2024, when the number of Democratic legislative seats dropped to historic lows. Looking at Republican lows back when the Democratic Party enjoyed a legislative supermajority over a more than 80-year period, they also had to build their way slowly over decades.
In the House, the GOP dropped to just nine seats twice; once after the 1964 elections and once after the 1976 elections. And for a two-year period beginning in 1991, former Pleasants County state senator Donna Boley was the only Republican in the Senate. But by 2015, Republicans first took the majorities in both bodies. And after 2024, Democrats had nine seats in the House and two seats in the Senate.
With supermajorities in the Legislature, a lock on the governor and Board of Public Works offices, an all-GOP congressional delegation, and the majority of voter registrations, one can argue that after 2024, the West Virginia Republican Party did the one thing that Han Solo said not to do: They got cocky.
The party voted narrowly to block participation in GOP primaries by unaffiliated voters beginning with this year’s primary in May. Allies of Gov. Patrick Morrisey and Senate President Randy Smith poured money into the May primary to try to push out Republican incumbents they considered to be enemies. Supporters of establishment Republican lawmakers did likewise.
The battlelines between these two GOP factions largely remained the same afterward, while Democratic and independent voters were able to kick out two Morrisey-backed state Supreme Court appointees, with Intermediate Court of Appeals Judge Dan Greear – a long-time Republican official and candidate – also falling.
But state Republican leaders didn't think they had anything to be concerned about in the general election. After all, Republican Party voter registration kept increasing, with even long-time southern West Virginia Democratic strongholds, such as Boone and Logan counties, becoming GOP majority counties.
I don’t think anyone, especially state Republican elected officials and party leaders, were factoring in just how angry people are right now about the economy and affordability. According to the Associated Press Voter Poll, approximately three-fourths of those polled said the economy is not good, or poor.
Tariffs continue to affect inflation and the cost of goods. The Iran War continues to keep gas prices high. And the Office of Energy might be able to say electric rates have not risen as fast in West Virginia as they have in neighboring states, but that’s not much consolation for a senior on a fixed income who just saw their rates rise again. And these issues affect Republicans, Democrats, unaffiliated voters, etc.
And while President Donald Trump’s favorability remains above water in West Virginia, that’s still down from all-time highs, and his job approval numbers are worse. People might love the idea of Trump, but two years of seeing him in action again has caused some of those supporters to question that original support.
Yes, the Democratic statehouse pickups were small. Yes, Republicans maintained their supermajorities. And yes, the Republican congressional delegation won their re-elections. But the splash West Virginia received from the national Democratic blue wave that saw the U.S. House and Senate flip and governorships go into the Dem column also saw some major shifts toward Democratic candidates.
According to different analyses I’ve seen by the New York Times, Ground News and Decision Desk HQ, every West Virginia county shifted toward Democratic candidates compared to the 2024 and 2020 elections. In fact, 94% of all counties in the U.S. saw shifts toward Democratic candidates, including fellow pro-Trump state Wyoming.
How is this possible when Republicans dominate in voter registration? The same reason why Republican candidates were winning in West Virginia when Democrats had a clear majority in voter registrations: political parties don’t matter in general elections as much as pundits and politicos think they do.
Some Republicans overuse the acronym RINO (Republican In Name Only) for fellow Republicans they believe are not Republican (or pro-Trump) enough. But they forget that most registered Republicans in this state are RINOs too, many being registered Democrats not all that long ago.
Many of those registered as Republicans voted for the three new Democratic senators-elect and the 14 new incoming House Democrats. We could speculate why all day long, but those Democratic candidates must have had a winning message that appealed to Democrats, Republicans, and the third largest block of voters: those unaffiliated independents.
That’s what makes a statement released Wednesday by Senate President Randy Smith, R-Preston, baffling. Written not by Senate staff but by a political consultant, the statement had the following message: “Voters gave us a clear mandate to keep going, and that's exactly what we intend to do.”
Perhaps some humility is in order instead of a touchdown dance. Because if that is the message Republican leaders received after Tuesday, then Democrats will simply pick up more seats after 2028. It remains to be seen if this was all just a blue splash or a sign that the blue tide is coming in.