West Virginia center Harlan Obioha (55) is defended by Texas Tech forward Luke Bamgboye (9) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026, in Morgantown, W.Va. (AP Photo/Kathleen Batten)

MORGANTOWN — On the surface, it would seem there’s not much of a difference between the WVU men’s basketball team and UCF, which hosts the Mountaineers inside Addition Financial Arena at 6 p.m. today in Orlando, Fla..

Both schools sit in the middle of the Big 12 standings with a 6-5 league record. They’ve both beaten No. 9 Kansas, the only two conference losses the Jayhawks have suffered so far this season. They also both beat Pitt.

Both teams also had to replace 100% of its scoring from the 2024-25 season and both have also been very good at home. UCF (17-6, 6-5 Big 12) is 13-2 in home games this season. So is West Virginia (15-9, 6-5).

“You have to give coach Johnny Dawkins and his staff a ton of credit,” began WVU head coach Ross Hodge. “Even though he’s been there 10 years, anytime you’re coaching a team that not one player is back from the year before and you have a winning record in the Big 12 and you’ve positioned yourself to be in the NCAA tournament; he’s done of the best coaching jobs this year that not a lot of people are talking about.”

It’s only when one digs a little deeper do you begin to see the differences. With a somewhat nearly identical resume, UCF is currently projected as an at-large team for the NCAA tournament. WVU is on the outside looking in.

What gives? The answer lies in the metrics that fuels college basketball, numbers that are spit out by computers and always seem to be constantly updating themselves with each dribble of a basketball on a nightly basis.

UCF is currently 49th in the Ken Pomeroy ratings, which is a power poll that takes in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and adds in a team’s strength of schedule, as well as margin of victory. WVU is currently No. 61.

Pull off an upset, like WVU and UCF both did against Kansas, and teams will skyrocket up Pomeroy’s ratings. The flip side is when a Power Five Conference school loses to a small mid-major or doesn’t win by a great margin, the school will also drop by leaps and bounds.

“For instance, when we beat Campbell way back at the beginning of the year, well we beat Campbell by eight (73-65) instead of beating them by 16,” Hodge said. “We dropped 11 spots in Ken Pom that night. We go get beat really really bad at Arizona and we didn’t drop one spot.

“We’re 61 in Ken Pom right now. Had we beaten Campbell by what they thought we should have beaten them, maybe we’re at 49 right now. That’s the way Ken Pom works.”

Strength of schedule also comes into play. WVU’s strength of schedule is No. 92 in the nation, the lowest of the 16 Big 12 schools. UCF’s strength of schedule sits at No. 17.

The difference there is UCF has played six teams ranked outside the top 150 of the NCAA’s NET rankings, while WVU has played eight. WVU has also played seven teams ranked No. 250 or higher. UCF has played three.

Pomeroy’s rankings also point out one more glaring difference between UCF and WVU. The Mountaineers are defensively driven, ranked as the 28th best defensive team in the country. UCF is 114th on defense. Offensively, UCF is ranked 34th, while the Mountaineers are ranked 130th.

All of that is on paper. It’s pregame fodder for a Big 12 matchup that pales in comparison to other league games on Saturday, such as Kansas traveling to Iowa State and Texas Tech traveling to top-ranked Arizona.

On the court, WVU will have to deal with UCF’s ability to rebound the ball, especially on the offensive glass. The Knights are seventh in the Big 12 in total rebounds and fourth in offensive rebounding.

UCF scores a lot (82 points per game), but also allows 77 points. WVU’s defensive numbers are near the top of the league, while its offensive numbers are near the bottom.

UCF leading scorer, Riley Kugel – a senior guard who transferred in from Mississippi State – has been struggling lately, with 28 points over his last three games.

WVU’s leading scorer, Honor Huff, has also been struggling with his shot. He’s combined for just 27 points over his last three games.

“To me, it starts with (Themus) Fulks,” Hodge said about UCF’s point guard. “He’s probably been as impactful as any player has been in the Big 12 this year. Just as it pertains to the impact on winning, I’d think you’d be pressed to find anybody who has had a more impactful year than Fulks. He’s so reliable and so strong and he takes care of the ball.”