Chris Stirewalt: Trump Better Off ‘Playing Powerball’ Than Expecting Enough Votes To Flip Post-Election Day
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The former political editor of Fox News told the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riots that former president Donald Trump would have been better off "playing Powerball" than expecting enough votes to flip in enough states to beat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Chris Stirewalt, a Wheeling native and former staff writer for The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register who is now the political editor at NewsNation, testified before the Jan. 6 committee Monday morning, offering his perspective on how Fox News was the first to call Arizona for Joe Biden, a key state either candidate needed to ultimately prevail.
According to recorded testimony from former Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien and former Trump advisor Jason Miller, the mood on election night at the White House changed after Fox News called Arizona for Biden. Trump advisors then discussed what the next steps should be.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani suggested Trump go out that night and declare victory, an opinion Stepien said he didn't share.
Stirewalt said the process Fox News had in place had those in charge of calling elections supremely confident that their Arizona call was the right one. The network had partnered with the Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago to create a "wonderful device for forecasting the outcome of elections."
"So we had a different set of data than our competitors," he said. "We had more research, we had a better system and we had a great team."
At some point, Stirewalt testified, it became clear it was time to call Arizona. Stirewalt said his boss, Bill Sammon, declared that no call would be made until everyone in the room agreed.
"We knew it would be a consequential call because it was one of five states that really mattered - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona were the ones we were watching," Stirewalt said. "We knew it would be significant to call any one of those five. We already knew Trump's chances were small and getting smaller based on what we had seen. We were able to make the call early. We were able to beat the competition. We looked around the room, everybody says yea, and on we go."
It wasn't until the group moved onto tracking other states that they realized the hubbub they created by calling Arizona when they did. Ultimately, Biden won all five battleground states.
After the election, Trump and his supporters claimed fraudulent votes in those states and demanded recounts. Stirewalt said the margin of victories in those states made it nearly impossible for them to be swung by recounts.
"In a recount, you're talking about hundreds of votes," he said. "When we think about calling a race, one of the things we think about is, is it outside the margin of a recount. And when we think about that margin, we think about, in modern history, you’re talking about 1,000-1,500 votes, at the way, way outside. Normally, you’re talking about hundreds of votes, maybe 300 votes that will change.
"So the idea that through any normal process in any of these states -- remember he had to do it thrice," he continued. "He needed three of these states to change. In order to do that, you’re better off to play the Powerball than to have that come in."